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I can now say that I've tasted the ass-end of variance after a horrible weekend at the tables. I don't know what else to say at this point. I was cruising along well this month. I was up 100 BB in $1/$2 limit hold'em and was all set to clear my $100 PokerStars bonus, order my $250 gift certificate from the FPP Store, and possibly move up to $2/$4 by month's end.

And then it happened...

I played two sessions on Saturday and won 6 BB total.

On Sunday, everything fell apart as I dropped 110 BB in the span of 500 hands.

And yesterday, I managed to drop another 90 BB over 250 hands.

It was an ugly couple of days. I missed about 95% of flops and those hands were the bright spots. The hands that I did play ended up costing me a fortune.

I rivered Q-high, J-high, and T-high flushes only be shown the nut-flush by my opponents time and time again.

I flopped top pair only to run into sets and two-pair hands.

I got counterfeited and outdrawn on the river time and time again.

I ran into the absolute top of my opponents' hand ranges repeatedly (e.g. 70/50/3.3 LAG picks up KK against my TT).

And I got pushed off hand after hand by passive opponents betting their hands aggressively. I especially like the move where they slowplay until the river and then raise my "value bet" with the stone-cold nuts. I paid off intermittently with my decent hands getting 9-1 or better just to keep them honest.

It's not all doom and gloom. I did clear my $100 bonus. And I ordered my $250 gift certificate. The only casualty is my poor bankroll and my self-esteem. I don't think that I've had a single winning month this year. November will be no different.

I'll likely try to play a couple more sessions this week to see how things are feeling. My confidence is shot and I'll probably be a little shaky at the tables. I might have to jump down to the $0.50/$1 games until I feel confident enough to bet non-nut hands on any street. I'm definitely feeling pretty frustrated with poker right now. I'm not sure how the guy playing 100% of his hands over a 60 hand sample managed to walk away with so much of my money yesterday...f*cker...

I hope everyone else is having a much better time at the tables than me.

Have a good one...


The Poker Meister said...

Go back to a game you know - and know well. Play 50NL for now until you get your head on straight. Otherwise, drop to 25NL. Much easier game than the limit grind. With the proper aggression, you don't see nearly as many suckouts and you're able to push people off better hands.

Memphis MOJO said...

I agree with poker meister - drop down.

Another thing I do when running bad is to switch games. Play $5 sit and gos. Play limit hold 'em. Play Omaha at low stakes.

When you come back, you'll be energized and confident.

Klopzi said...

Thanks for the comments.

@Meister: I'm not even sure which games I do know well enough to win nowadays. NL is brutal and I'm definitely out of practice. Still, a little $25 NL might help to knock me out of my funk.

@Memphis: I don't know if I'd play sit-n-gos right now. My SNG record is pretty poor. I could switch games though I do feel like I'm starting to get a good feel for limit hold'em despite the crushing setback over the past couple of days. Again - maybe a little $25 NL to clear my head might work.

The Poker Meister said...

I took most of my money off FT in preparation for whatever MAY happen with the IUGEA here in the U.S. Of course, as one would expect, the bad luck hex was put upon me from the Gods at Full Tilt because of the withdrawal, and I proceeded to run my pathetic bankroll down to a point where I could not 6 table and rebuy in full at 50nl. I was forced to play 25nl - and happy I did! MAN! 25nl is an EASY GAME! Just sit back and let them bet into you.