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An Uphill Battle

I made two New Year's resolutions this year. First, I wanted to play more poker than I did in 2007. Ultimately, I want to be playing at least $200 NL by year's end. The second resolution involved weighing myself on a daily basis and allowing my shame to be a strong catalyst to a good bit of weight loss.

Poker is coming along nicely. I've been playing - just not as much as I'd hoped. It's still early in the year, so there's plenty of time to make up for some missed hands. I mentioned yesterday that I've laid out a plan of attack for moving up the ladder to increasingly higher buy-in games.

Unlike my previous attempts to move up, I've decided to really test myself this year and take a few more calculated risks with my bankroll. In the past, I played it too safe. At one point, my bankroll was fast approaching $10K and I was still playing the $10 NL tables. I realize that it takes time to be able to play with the big boys and that experience is a key to success, but I also believe that "you'll never know until you try".

My bankroll currently sits at around $2,000. Considering that I had only $1000 last July after cashing out, I think I've done pretty well given my limited playing time. I don't know of many business investments that offer a 100% ROI in less than 6 months!

The table below outlines a reasonable advancement schedule for moving up in stakes. Here are the rules and assumptions that I made while building the chart below:

  • I'll play only two tables at time.
  • I'll see 60 hands per hour at a 6-max NL table.
  • My desire to play poker will increase as I move up in stakes, resulting in more hands played per week.
  • My win rate will decrease as I move up in limits.
  • My rakeback percentage is set based on my current deals with RakeTheRake.
  • The numbers below are completely theoretical. I'm well aware that the games get much more difficult as the stakes increase;, so there's no need to piss in Corn Flakes and tell me that I'm in for a shock when I first sit at a $400 NL or $600 NL table.

StakesBankroll Req'd$$/hour (incl. rakeback)Hours/WeekExpected Start Date
100 NL$1500$135December 2007
200 NL$3200$207May 2008
400 NL$6400$297November 2008
600 NL$9600$3410March 2009
1000 NL$16000$4010July 2009

Don't you love the way that basic math makes everything look so easy? I wonder how long I'll be able to stay on target. If I was playing $400 NL by the end of this year and making good progress to towards playing $600 NL, I'd be pretty damned impressed. That's the great thing about setting goals for yourself: they can be as lofty or as unrealistic as you like!

As for my second New Year's resolution, I'm sad to say that the following video best describes my current eating habits:


Have a great weekend everyone!

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