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The wheels are in motion...

There is something very important happening this weekend. One year ago this coming Sunday, a silly girl decided to say "I will" (no one seems to say "I do" anymore) when asked if she would marry me. And so began the journey that is marriage.

It's been a great year, full of ups and no real downs that I can think of - unless you count us being in serious debt and stressing non-stop about money! And although poker has become a big part of my life, my wife is my life.

So let me just say to my beautiful wife:

I love you baby! I'm sorry you got stuck married to a poker player/video game nerd; I'll make it up to you by being the best husband I can be. I'll do it all: vacuum, cook, clean, and give sexy g-string dances.

And now - poker time!

Another minor event occurring this weekend involves me moving up in the limits I play. I didn't play at all last night in preparation for the upcoming move.

I've done the readings, I've got my strategy book all set, and I've got the bankroll and drive to get this f*ucking thing accomplished once and for all. I'm going to beat the $1/$2 limit tables even if it kills me.

I'm giving myself 150 BBs to lose. However, if I'm playing well, bump that up to 300 BBs. I'm hoping that I won't be so unlucky as to drop $600 over the course of my time at $1/$2, but anything's possible.

*** WARNING: HIGHLY INACCURATE AND BORING MATH AHEAD ***

I was doing some calculations about what to expect money-wise in clearing the $25 bonus at Interpoker.

An average table has 60 Hands/HR (there are a lot of hands where everyone folds). From this number, I'll say there are 40 Raked Hands/HR.

These numbers shouldn't be too far off. The $1/$2 tables at Interpoker have flop percentages in the high 20s and low 30s. The games are tight and aggressive on average but you'll find fishy players if you look hard enough.

To clear my $25 bonus at the 5x raked hands requirement, I'll need to play 125 Raked Hands. A raked hand is considered any hand where the rake is $1 or more. Any hands raked for less than $1 count as 1/4 of a raked hand.

At the $1/$2 tables, I'd say 10% of all raked hands are the full raked hands and 9 are quarter raked hands. This means that of the 40 Raked Hands/HR, only a total of 14 Raked Hands are counted towards my bonus [3.25/10 = x/40, x = 14].

At 14 Raked Hands/HR, it will take me 9 hours to clear my bonus [125 raked hands required / 14 raked hands per hour = 9 hours].

Let's look at how much I'll have to pay in blinds now. At $1.50 (SB + BB) for every 10 hands dealt, I'll be paying $9/HR if 60 hands are dealt per hour. If it takes me 9 hours to clear the bonus, I'm looking at $81 paid in blinds.

If we now subtract the $25 bonus from the $81 in blinds, we're left with $59 left to win in order to break even.

Here's the good news! In 9 hours of play, I'll be dealt about 540 hands. If my chances of being dealt either AA, KK or QQ are 3/221, I should get dealt these premium hands about 7 times over the course of clearing the bonus.

I've averaged average win rates for these premium hands as follows:
  • AA = 2.9 BB/hand
  • KK = 2.7 BB/hand
  • QQ = 2.25 BB/hand

If we use an low-average of 2.5 BB/hand, I stand to make 17.5 BB = $35 on my premium hands by themselves.

This means that I need to clear an additional $24 to break even when clearing my bonus. Although I'd be happy to break even (the cost of learning), I'd like to come out ahead.

At the 0.50/1 games, I tend to have a WWSF% (won-when-seeing-flop %) of 30% - but I'l bump that down to 20% since I'll be scared money at $1/$2. I also have a VP$IP of 15%. This means that I'll play about 71 hands in clearing my bonus and win 14 hands total. Of these 14 hands, 7 will most likely be premium hands (AA-QQ) netting me the 17.5 BBs mentioned above.

For the remaining 7 hands, I'll figure an average of 1.5 BB/hand won. This means an additional 10.5 BBs = $21.

This leaves me with another $3 to break even.

That's where my rakeback kicks in. Of the 14 hands that I win, I'll pay about $7 in rake. Of this, I'll get back about $2.50 from my rakeback.

I'm still short 50 cents!

No worries. Lastly, I forgot to include any blind steals in my calculations. If I manage to steal the blinds once per hour, I'll pick up an additional 13.5 BBs. This means an additional $27 in my pocket.

In the end, I should end up +$26.50 after clearing my $25 bonus! Cool! How's that for some meaningless math?

Honestly, all this calculation does is help me realize that as long as I play my usual tight-aggressive game and don't go throwing good money in after bad, I should end up ok. The only concern I have is that some of the numbers used in my calculations may be slightly off, resulting in the accuracy of predicting future events dropping to the levels of a palm reader's.

Anyway, I'll only be playing poker tonight and on Monday (I'm taking the day off). Saturday and Sunday are reserved for my wife which is definitely +EV.

However, when I do play this weekend, it'll be the $1/$2 fixed limit games at Interpoker and the NL ring games at Eurobet. I'm going to finish off the $50 Eurobet NL Challenge and possibly start up the new NL challenge or play some SNGs (those 100 SNGs in 100 days are a thorn in my side).

Ok, this post was complete crap! I'm just excited about the weekend starting! Great wife, good food, sleeping in, and a bit of poker thrown in for good measure! It's gonna be a great weekend!

--

Quick question: could someone out there please click on my Eurobet banner and let me know if the link works? If you get the chance, drop me a line in the comments or e-mail me at klopzi@gmail.com to let me know the results.

Don't worry, I don't get any money for click-throughs on these things. Unless you sign up, I don't get squat! But if you do want to sign-up, please do so! Then you could play against me and make the game -EV for me!

4 comments:

AlCantHang said...

Congrats on the anniversary! Have a blast this weekend.

Klopzi said...

Thanks Al! Will do.

drewspop said...

Congrats. That is great. You're off to a long future. I have been hitched for 12 years myself now and wouldn't change anything. Now if I could just get her to say the same (especially about my little poker issue, lol).

I will give your link a try tonight. Dang firewall won't let me from here.

Klopzi said...

Thanks drewspop!

My wife and I had a great anniversary weekend together. We're looking forward for many more...